You can see that the small "speculators" have bailed out of their "long" positions, and now have more bearish bets than bullish bets. No, this is not at bear market killing levels, but despite what you might be feeling, this correction does not even come close to looking like anything more than a correction. In fact, it looks very much like the correction of last year (2010). If you look at our Asset Allocation Model below, it is still saying the bullish incentive is much greater than the risks we are reading about in the papers and hearing about on TV every day.We suspect that the volatility phase is NOT over, but we expect based on historical precedence, that we have seen the peak of the panic fear, and each echo will produce a little better set of economic indicators in its wake.
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August 23, 2011
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